Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.64 to 2.85 on expected goals, with 82.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
608 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 18 October at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.64 for the hosts and 2.85 for the visitors, a combined 4.49 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SC Freiburg are a clear favourite at 62.1%, with the draw back at 18.2%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — last 10: W-W-D-W-L-D-L-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 23 scored and 16 conceded, 2.30 and 1.60 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-D-W-L across 5, 12 scored and 4 conceded.
SC Freiburg — last 10: W-D-W-W-W-W-L-D-L-W (most recent first). That is 23 scored and 14 conceded, 2.30 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-W-L-L-W across 5, 6 scored and 9 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Bayer 04 Leverkusen have won 4, SC Freiburg 0, with 2 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 7 Mar 2026: SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.49 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
SC Freiburg carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.85 against 1.64. Both teams to score sits at 76.6%, and over 2.5 goals at 82.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 19.7% |
| Draw | 18.2% |
| SC Freiburg win | 62.1% |
| Both teams to score | 76.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 82.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-2 at 7.5%, 1-3 at 7.1%, 2-2 at 6.1%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 81.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.63, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 63.2% confidence. Expected total goals 3.61, from 2.36 - 1.25 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side).
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 62.6% confidence. Expected goals 2.36 - 1.25, so the weaker attack still projects 1.25 goals.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 61% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.5 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 54.5% confidence. Expected corners 8.2 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 54.1% confidence. Expected goals 2.36 - 1.25 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.47 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 54.1% confidence. Expected goals 2.36 - 1.25 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; Bayer 04 Leverkusen rate 0.47 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.63 before the break and 1.99 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 44.4% confidence. Expected goals 2.36 - 1.25, which projects a 33% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an SC Freiburg win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.5%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an SC Freiburg win at 62.1%, with the draw at 18.2%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
