Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.47 to 1.28 on expected goals, with 51.9% for over 2.5 goals in the Ligue 1.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Le Havre AC host AJ Auxerre in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 18 October at 15:15 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.47 for the hosts and 1.28 for the visitors, a combined 2.75 goals against a competition norm of 2.78.
Le Havre AC hold the edge at 40.1%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Le Havre AC — last 10: L-L-D-L-D-L-W-L-D-D (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 14 conceded, 1.10 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-L-L-L-D across 5, 5 scored and 8 conceded.
AJ Auxerre — last 10: L-W-W-L-L-L-W-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 17 scored and 21 conceded, 1.70 and 2.10 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 8 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-L-W-L across 5, 8 scored and 15 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Le Havre AC have won 3, AJ Auxerre 2, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 5 Apr 2026: Le Havre AC 1-1 AJ Auxerre.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.75 goals in this fixture, below the Ligue 1 norm of 2.78, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Le Havre AC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.47 against 1.28. Both teams to score sits at 57.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 51.9% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 40.1% |
| Draw | 28.5% |
| AJ Auxerre win | 31.3% |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 13.6%, 2-1 at 8.8%, 0-0 at 8%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 76.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.3 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 65.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.03, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 54.2% confidence. Expected total goals 2.30, from 1.16 - 1.13 (Ligue 1 baseline 1.41 per side).
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 52.5% confidence. Expected corners 9.1 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 49.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.13, so the weaker attack still projects 1.13 goals.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 41.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.03 before the break and 1.26 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 38.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.13 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.41 per side; AJ Auxerre rate 0.17 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 38.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.13 against a Ligue 1 baseline of 1.41 per side; AJ Auxerre rate 0.17 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 28.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.13, which projects a 46% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-1 — a Le Havre AC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.8%.
Confidence: Low. The model puts a Le Havre AC win at 40.1%, with the draw at 28.5%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 13.6%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and on a fixture priced this close that is a live possibility.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
