Cagliari Calcio vs Bologna FC 1909 prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.21 to 0.32 on expected goals, with 19.7% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
609 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis Hide full analysis
Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Cagliari Calcio host Bologna FC 1909 in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 24 October at 13:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.21 for the hosts and 0.32 for the visitors, a combined 1.52 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
Cagliari Calcio are a clear favourite at 58.4%, with the draw back at 33.1%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Cagliari Calcio — last 10: D-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-L-D (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 7 conceded, 1.00 and 0.70 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 4 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads D-W-L-W-L across 5, 4 scored and 5 conceded.
Bologna FC 1909 — last 10: L-W-D-L-D-L-L-D-W-W (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 15 conceded, 1.30 and 1.50 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 5 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-L-W-W across 5, 6 scored and 5 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 6 meetings on record, Cagliari Calcio have won 1, Bologna FC 1909 4, with 1 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 3 May 2026: Bologna FC 1909 0-0 Cagliari Calcio.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 1.52 goals in this fixture, below the Serie A norm of 2.72, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
Cagliari Calcio carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.21 against 0.32. Both teams to score sits at 20%, and over 2.5 goals at 19.7% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 58.4% |
| Draw | 33.1% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 8.5% |
| Both teams to score | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 19.7% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-0 at 25.3%, 0-0 at 22.9%, 2-0 at 15.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 62.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.02, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Under 2.5 — 61.6% confidence. Expected total goals 2.26, from 1.16 - 1.10 (Serie A baseline 1.34 per side).
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 57.7% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.1 against a league baseline of 3.7.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.10, so the weaker attack still projects 1.10 goals.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 51.8% confidence. Expected corners 8.8 against a league baseline of 8.8.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 40.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.10 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 40.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.10 against a Serie A baseline of 1.34 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 40.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.02 before the break and 1.25 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 29.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.16 - 1.10, which projects a 46% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-0 — a Cagliari Calcio win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 25.3%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts a Cagliari Calcio win at 58.4%, with the draw at 33.1%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
