SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.53 to 0.96 on expected goals, with 45.1% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SC Paderborn 07 host Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 24 October at 13:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.53 for the hosts and 0.96 for the visitors, a combined 2.48 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
SC Paderborn 07 are a clear favourite at 49%, with the draw back at 29%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10: D-L-W-L-L-D-L-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 9 scored and 21 conceded, 0.90 and 2.10 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-L-L-L across 5, 5 scored and 12 conceded.
Hamburger SV — last 10: W-W-W-L-L-L-D-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 21 conceded, 1.30 and 2.10 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 7 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-L-L-D-W across 5, 6 scored and 11 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 2 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, Hamburger SV 1, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 4 Feb 2015: SC Paderborn 07 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.48 goals in this fixture, below the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, the profile of a match decided by one goal rather than by three.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.53 against 0.96. Both teams to score sits at 49.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 45.1% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 49% |
| Draw | 29% |
| Hamburger SV win | 22.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 13.8%, 1-0 at 11.2%, 0-0 at 10%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 83.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.8 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 72.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.30, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 62% confidence. Expected corners 10.0 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.69 - 1.21, so the weaker attack still projects 1.21 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 52% confidence. Expected total goals 2.89, from 1.69 - 1.21 (Bundesliga baseline 1.59 per side).
- Match Winner: Home Win — 47.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.69 - 1.21 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.18 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 47.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.69 - 1.21 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.59 per side; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.18 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44% confidence. Expected goals 1.30 before the break and 1.59 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 37.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.69 - 1.21, which projects a 40% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-0 — a SC Paderborn 07 win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 11.2%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts a SC Paderborn 07 win at 49%, with the draw at 29%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 13.8%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes an open game the goals numbers do not expect, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
