CF Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia AC prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.17 to 0.52 on expected goals, with 71.3% for over 2.5 goals in the Primeira Liga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
CF Estrela da Amadora host Casa Pia AC in the Primeira Liga, kicking off Saturday 24 October at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.17 for the hosts and 0.52 for the visitors, a combined 3.69 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
CF Estrela da Amadora are a clear favourite at 87.4%, with the draw back at 9.8%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
CF Estrela da Amadora — last 6: L-L-D-W-D-W (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 11 conceded, 1.67 and 1.83 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 6, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-D across 3, 4 scored and 5 conceded.
Casa Pia AC — last 10: L-W-L-D-L-L-L-L-D-W (most recent first). That is 5 scored and 18 conceded, 0.50 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 3 of the 10, and 3 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads W-D-L-L-W across 5, 3 scored and 4 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.69 goals in this fixture, above the Primeira Liga norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
CF Estrela da Amadora carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.17 against 0.52. Both teams to score sits at 39.4%, and over 2.5 goals at 71.3% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| CF Estrela da Amadora win | 87.4% |
| Draw | 9.8% |
| Casa Pia AC win | 2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.3% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-0 at 13.3%, 2-0 at 12.6%, 4-0 at 10.5%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 78.4% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.6 against a league baseline of 3.9.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 71.1% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.17, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 66.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.85 - 0.76 against a Primeira Liga baseline of 1.33 per side; CF Estrela da Amadora rate 0.73 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 66.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.85 - 0.76 against a Primeira Liga baseline of 1.33 per side; CF Estrela da Amadora rate 0.73 clear on the fitted ratings.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 55.6% confidence. Expected corners 9.4 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): NG (No) — 55.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.85 - 0.76, so the weaker attack still projects 0.76 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 51.1% confidence. Expected total goals 2.60, from 1.85 - 0.76 (Primeira Liga baseline 1.33 per side).
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 48.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.85 - 0.76, which projects a 40% chance of a level score at the break.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 43.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.17 before the break and 1.43 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-0 — a CF Estrela da Amadora win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 13.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a CF Estrela da Amadora win at 87.4%, with the draw at 9.8%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
