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Serie A • Sat, Oct 24, 16:00 GMT
SSC Napoli crest
SSC Napoli W W L L L W D W L L
VS
FEATURED MATCH
AS Roma crest
AS Roma W W W W D W D D L W
H2H
Head to Head Record
6 meetings on record — 2 · 3 · 1 see them
Model Verdict · First Half Over 0.5 Goals
1H Over 0.5
Confidence
68.1%
See full analysis ↓
The record behind the preview

Form, Head-to-Head & Goal Expectation

20 completed matches · 6 previous meetings
SSC Napoli Home
Last 10 · any opponent
W W L L L W D W L L
  • 17 Oct 2026 A Venezia FC 0-1 L
  • 13 Oct 2026 A Villarreal CF 1-3 L
  • 10 Oct 2026 H Frosinone Calcio 3-0 W
  • 20 Sep 2026 A ACF Fiorentina 1-1 D
  • 13 Sep 2026 H Bologna FC 1909 1-0 W
  • 9 Sep 2026 H Arsenal FC 0-1 L
  • 5 Sep 2026 A FC Internazionale Milano 2-3 L
  • 30 Aug 2026 H Como 1907 1-2 L
  • 22 Aug 2026 A Genoa CFC 2-0 W
  • 24 May 2026 H Udinese 1-0 W
12–11
Scored / Let in
4
Clean sheets
4/10
Over 2.5
At home only: W-W-L-L-W across 5, 6 scored and 3 conceded.
Season rate 1.43 scored · 1.00 conceded / game
AS Roma Away
Last 10 · any opponent
W W W W D W D D L W
  • 17 Oct 2026 H Genoa CFC 2-0 W
  • 14 Oct 2026 H Real Madrid CF 3-4 L
  • 11 Oct 2026 A Como 1907 0-0 D
  • 19 Sep 2026 H FC Internazionale Milano 2-2 D
  • 14 Sep 2026 A Torino FC 2-0 W
  • 10 Sep 2026 A Fenerbahçe SK 1-1 D
  • 5 Sep 2026 H Atalanta BC 2-1 W
  • 31 Aug 2026 A US Lecce 4-0 W
  • 24 Aug 2026 H ACF Fiorentina 4-0 W
  • 24 May 2026 A Verona 2-0 W
22–8
Scored / Let in
6
Clean sheets
5/10
Over 2.5
Away only: D-W-D-W-W across 5, 9 scored and 1 conceded.
Season rate 2.29 scored · 0.43 conceded / game
Expected goals 2.20 total · Serie A norm 2.72
0.52
1.68
Likeliest scorelines 0-1 17.4% 0-2 15.7% 0-0 12.3% no single scoreline is ever likely on its own
Head to head domestic league meetings · cups and Europe not included
2
SSC Napoli
3
Drawn
1
AS Roma
  • 15 Feb 2026 SSC Napoli 2-2 AS Roma
  • 30 Nov 2025 AS Roma 0-1 SSC Napoli
  • 2 Feb 2025 AS Roma 1-1 SSC Napoli
  • 24 Nov 2024 SSC Napoli 1-0 AS Roma
  • 28 Apr 2024 SSC Napoli 2-2 AS Roma
  • 23 Dec 2023 AS Roma 2-0 SSC Napoli
GUARANTEED CORRECT EDITORIAL & AI ANALYSIS

SSC Napoli vs AS Roma: Form Collides in Serie A Clash

AS Roma bring a formidable away defensive record into a Serie A preview where the numbers point heavily toward an away victory.

689 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis

Match Overview & What Is At Stake

AS Roma arrive boasting an exceptional defensive concession rate of just 0.43 goals per match across the competition. This fixture carries substantial weight as SSC Napoli attempt to reverse a sticky patch of form under a compressed schedule.

SSC Napoli face a strenuous calendar with four matches in the last fortnight and only four days of rest since their last outing. That physical burden sets up a fascinating tactical dynamic against a visiting side that excels at suppressing opponents on the road.

SSC Napoli navigate a turbulent sequence, recording five defeats, one draw, and four victories from their last ten completed matches across all competitions. That run yielded 12 goals scored and 11 conceded, translating to averages of 1.20 and 1.10 per match respectively.

Defensive vulnerabilities have surfaced recently, with SSC Napoli registering four clean sheets in this ten-game sample while four fixtures went over 2.5 goals. Their home sequence reflects some stability with three wins and two defeats across five matches, yielding six goals scored against three conceded.

AS Roma present a vastly different momentum profile, collecting six wins, three draws, and a single defeat in their last ten outings. That sequence produced 22 goals scored and only eight conceded, marking a strong upward trajectory of 2.20 goals per match.

AS Roma kept six clean sheets across this ten-game run, with four matches featuring goals at both ends and five clearing the 2.5-goal threshold. Their away form highlights a remarkable defensive resilience on the road, where a five-match stretch of two wins and three draws yielded nine goals scored and just a single concession.

Head-to-Head Record

Date Competition Fixture Result
15 Feb 2026 Serie A SSC Napoli vs AS Roma 2-2
30 Nov 2025 Serie A AS Roma vs SSC Napoli 0-1
2 Feb 2025 Serie A AS Roma vs SSC Napoli 1-1
24 Nov 2024 Serie A SSC Napoli vs AS Roma 1-0
28 Apr 2024 Serie A SSC Napoli vs AS Roma 2-2
23 Dec 2023 Serie A AS Roma vs AS Roma 2-0

Past meetings in the domestic league archive demonstrate a remarkably tight historical rivalry across six encounters. SSC Napoli claimed two victories to AS Roma's one, while three fixtures ended in stalemates. Recent history underscores this competitive parity, featuring two draws and a narrow victory for SSC Napoli over the last three meetings.

Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say

The underlying metrics indicate a match heavily influenced by fixture congestion. SSC Napoli navigate a gruelling schedule involving four matches in the past fortnight, leaving them operating on a tight four-day turnaround.

This heavy load feeds directly into the expected goals models. The Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson engine projects a tight affair with a total expected goals figure of 2.20, sitting below the Serie A baseline of 2.72.

First-half dynamics show an anticipated slow burn, with expected goals partitioned at a 45% share before the break. Fatigue could manifest more noticeably in the second period, where expected goals climb higher as spaces open up.

Expected Goals & Probability Outlook

The Dixon-Coles model anticipates a low-scoring encounter dominated by the visitors, projecting an expected goals tally of 0.52 for SSC Napoli and 1.68 for AS Roma.

Metric Projection / Probability
Expected Goals (Napoli) 0.52
Expected Goals (Roma) 1.68
Total Expected Goals 2.20
Home Win Probability 9.7%
Draw Probability 25.6%
Away Win Probability 64.7%
Both Teams To Score Probability 34.2%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability 37.7%

The outcome probabilities reflect AS Roma's dominance in the metrics, commanding a 64.7% likelihood of victory. A draw sits at 25.6%, while an SSC Napoli win is assigned a remote 9.7% probability. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals linger well below the coin-flip threshold at 34.2% and 37.7% respectively.

Score Prediction & Verdict

For an SSC Napoli vs AS Roma prediction, the data points decisively toward a low-scoring away success. The model's likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 17.4%, closely followed by 0-2 at 15.7% and a scoreless draw at 12.3%.

We commit to a 0-1 away win, backed by a model confidence of 39.9% for the away victory.

For this call to be wrong, SSC Napoli must transcend their recent scoring ceiling and pierce an away defence that has conceded just once across its last five matches on the road, while overcoming the heavy physical toll of a congested fixture list.

Published by Guaranteed Correct Score Tips · Serie A
Updated: Oct 19, 2026 13:56
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Markets modelled for SSC Napoli vs AS Roma

What each bet on this fixture actually is, and what has to happen for it to win.

Match Winner ▼

A match winner pick backs one named team to win the game outright. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model gives one side the highest chance of doing that — home wins and away wins only, because the draw is a separate outcome and is covered on the match preview rather than here.

How it settles: The pick wins if the named team is ahead when the 90 minutes are up. A draw loses, and extra time and penalties in cup ties are ignored: everything on this site is settled from the 90-minute score.

See today's Top 10 Win list →
Over 2.5 Goals ▼

Over 2.5 goals means the two teams combine for three goals or more. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model has the strongest view on that line — normally high-scoring attacks, open defences, or leagues whose baseline goal rate runs above average.

How it settles: Three goals or more at full time wins an Over 2.5 pick; exactly two or fewer loses. Own goals count towards the total and, as everywhere on the site, only the 90 minutes are counted.

See today's Top 10 Over 2.5 list →
Both Teams To Score (GG) ▼

Both Teams To Score — GG on most coupons — asks only whether each side finds the net at least once. Who wins is irrelevant, which is why the list often prefers two mid-table attacking sides over a one-sided fixture between a giant and a defensive minnow.

How it settles: Both teams must score at least one goal in the 90 minutes. 1-1, 2-1 and 3-2 all win; 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0 all lose. Own goals count for the team credited with the goal in the official record.

See today's Top 10 BTTS list →
First Half Over 0.5 Goals ▼

This market asks a single question: will there be at least one goal before half time, by either team? It is the shortest question on the site, which is why the list is ranked against a much higher bar than the others.

How it settles: Any goal scored in the first half wins the pick, no matter who scores it. A goalless first half loses even if the second half produces five, because the market is settled on the half-time score alone.

See today's Top 10 1H Over 0.5 list →
Leading At Half Time ▼

This list backs a named team to be ahead when the half-time whistle goes. It is not a bet on the final result: a side can lead at the break, lose the match, and the pick still wins.

How it settles: The named team must be in front on the half-time score. Level at the break loses, including 0-0, and the second half has no bearing on it.

See today's Top 10 HT Win list →
Most Scoring Half ▼

Most Scoring Half asks which period of the match contains more goals: the first half, the second half, or neither, when both halves produce the same number. All goals by both teams are counted together, so this is a bet on the shape of the game rather than on who wins it.

How it settles: The half-time score gives the first-half total; the rest of the full-time score gives the second-half total. The larger total wins the pick, and Equal wins when the two are the same — including a 0-0, which counts as nil apiece rather than as no result.

See today's Top 10 Most Scoring Half list →
Over 8.5 Match Corners ▼

This market counts every corner awarded to both teams across the match. Over 8.5 means nine or more. Corner volume tracks territory rather than quality, so the model favours attacking sides that spend the game pushing a deep-lying opponent back.

How it settles: Nine corners or more wins the pick; eight or fewer loses. Only corners actually taken are counted in the official record, and the total is settled from the league data feed once the match is complete.

See today's Top 10 Corners list →
Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards ▼

This market counts the yellow cards shown to both teams across the match. Over 2.5 means three or more. Booking volume is driven by how a fixture is refereed and how often the two sides foul, which is why derbies and relegation matches sit near the top of the list.

How it settles: Three yellow cards or more wins the pick. The model counts yellows only, from the league data feed. Bookmakers that settle in booking points instead — commonly 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red — can grade the same match differently, so check the rule at your book before backing a card pick.

See today's Top 10 Cards list →

SSC Napoli vs AS Roma: frequently asked questions FAQ

Who is predicted to win in SSC Napoli vs AS Roma? ▼

Our expected-goals model's strongest call on this fixture is 1H Over 0.5 in the First Half Over 0.5 Goals market, at 68.1% modelled probability. That is a probability, not a forecast of a certainty.

What is the tactical preview and xG analysis for SSC Napoli vs AS Roma? ▼

Our expected goals model projects 0.52 for SSC Napoli and 1.68 for AS Roma, a combined 2.20 goals. SSC Napoli have taken L-L-W-D-W-L-L-L-W-W from their last 10 completed matches. AS Roma have taken W-L-D-D-W-D-W-W-W-W from their last 10. Across 6 previous meetings on record, SSC Napoli have won 2, AS Roma 1, with 3 drawn.

Which betting markets are modelled for SSC Napoli vs AS Roma? ▼

This fixture is modelled in 8 markets: First Half Over 0.5 Goals, Over 8.5 Match Corners, Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards, Over 2.5 Goals, Both Teams To Score (GG), Most Scoring Half, Match Winner and Leading At Half Time. Each is explained on this page, and the full set of selections and probabilities is in the model panel above.

When does SSC Napoli vs AS Roma kick off? ▼

SSC Napoli vs AS Roma in the Serie A kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Every prediction on this page is settled from the 90-minute score.

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