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Bundesliga • Sat, Oct 24, 16:30 GMT
Borussia Dortmund crest
Borussia Dortmund L W W W W W W D L D
VS
FEATURED MATCH
Eintracht Frankfurt crest
Eintracht Frankfurt D L L D D L W D L W
H2H
Head to Head Record
6 meetings on record — 5 · 1 · 0 see them
Model Verdict · First Half Over 0.5 Goals
1H Over 0.5
Confidence
80.7%
See full analysis ↓
The record behind the preview

Form, Head-to-Head & Goal Expectation

20 completed matches · 6 previous meetings
Borussia Dortmund Home
Last 10 · any opponent
L W W W W W W D L D
  • 17 Oct 2026 A 1. FC Union Berlin 0-0 D
  • 14 Oct 2026 A FK Bodø/Glimt 0-1 L
  • 9 Oct 2026 H SV Werder Bremen 2-2 D
  • 19 Sep 2026 A VfB Stuttgart 1-0 W
  • 12 Sep 2026 H SC Paderborn 07 3-0 W
  • 8 Sep 2026 H Villarreal CF 3-2 W
  • 5 Sep 2026 A TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 3-2 W
  • 29 Aug 2026 H Hamburger SV 2-0 W
  • 18 May 2024 H Darmstadt 4-0 W
  • 11 May 2024 A Mainz 0-3 L
18–10
Scored / Let in
5
Clean sheets
6/10
Over 2.5
At home only: D-W-W-W-W across 5, 14 scored and 4 conceded.
Season rate 1.83 scored · 0.67 conceded / game
Eintracht Frankfurt Away
Last 10 · any opponent
D L L D D L W D L W
  • 16 Oct 2026 H 1. FC Köln 1-0 W
  • 10 Oct 2026 A RB Leipzig 0-6 L
  • 19 Sep 2026 H SC Freiburg 2-2 D
  • 12 Sep 2026 A 1. FSV Mainz 05 3-1 W
  • 6 Sep 2026 H FC Augsburg 1-4 L
  • 29 Aug 2026 A 1. FC Union Berlin 3-3 D
  • 16 May 2026 H Stuttgart 2-2 D
  • 8 May 2026 A Dortmund 2-3 L
  • 2 May 2026 H Hamburg 1-2 L
  • 25 Apr 2026 A Augsburg 1-1 D
16–24
Scored / Let in
1
Clean sheets
8/10
Over 2.5
Away only: L-W-D-L-D across 5, 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Season rate 1.67 scored · 2.67 conceded / game
Expected goals 4.29 total · Bundesliga norm 3.14
3.58
0.71
Likeliest scorelines 3-0 10.5% 4-0 9.4% 2-0 8.8% no single scoreline is ever likely on its own
Head to head domestic league meetings · cups and Europe not included
5
Borussia Dortmund
1
Drawn
0
Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 17 Mar 2024 Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 29 Oct 2023 Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 Borussia Dortmund
  • 22 Apr 2023 Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Eintracht Frankfurt
  • 29 Oct 2022 Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
  • 8 Jan 2022 Eintracht Frankfurt 2-3 Borussia Dortmund
  • 14 Aug 2021 Borussia Dortmund 5-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
GUARANTEED CORRECT EDITORIAL & AI ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt Collide in Bundesliga Clash

Borussia Dortmund host Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga preview shaped by a dominant home side and an away defense conceding at an alarming rate.

674 words · ~4 min read Show full analysis

Match Overview & What Is At Stake

Borussia Dortmund return to action with only four days of rest since their last outing and a heavy schedule of three matches in the past fortnight. Eintracht Frankfurt travel to face a formidable opponent while grappling with defensive vulnerabilities that have defined their season so far. This fixture arrives with high expectations for goals, backed by a Dixon-Coles model that projects a significantly higher-scoring encounter than the Bundesliga norm. Punters weighing selections for this weekend will find a stark contrast between Dortmund's defensive resilience and Frankfurt's chaotic scorelines.

Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture with strong defensive foundations across the campaign, maintaining a scoring rate of 1.83 goals per game while conceding just 0.67. Their broader form shows stability, with five clean sheets across their last ten completed matches and a tendency for low-scoring affairs in recent weeks, including a scoreless draw against 1. FC Union Berlin and a narrow defeat to FK Bodø/Glimt. Restricting the view to home fixtures reveals even greater control, yielding four wins and a draw from five matches, with 14 goals scored and only 4 conceded.

Eintracht Frankfurt travel with a defensive record that points toward open matches, conceding 2.67 goals per game across the season. Their last ten completed matches have produced 16 goals scored against 24 conceded, with only a single clean sheet kept in that span. Eight of those ten fixtures saw both teams score, and eight crossed the 2.5 goals threshold. Away from home, Frankfurt's struggles are evident through nine goals scored and fourteen conceded across five matches, highlighted by a heavy 6-0 defeat at RB Leipzig and a chaotic 3-3 draw with 1. FC Union Berlin.

Head-to-Head Record

History between these clubs in the domestic league archive shows a clear upper hand for the hosts, with Borussia Dortmund winning five and drawing one of the six recorded encounters. Eintracht Frankfurt have failed to secure a victory in this specific sequence of matches.

Date Competition Result
17 Mar 2024 Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
29 Oct 2023 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt 3-3 Borussia Dortmund
22 Apr 2023 Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund 4-0 Eintracht Frankfurt
29 Oct 2022 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
8 Jan 2022 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt 2-3 Borussia Dortmund
14 Aug 2021 Bundesliga Borussia Dortmund 5-2 Eintracht Frankfurt

The past meetings demonstrate a consistent pattern of high-scoring encounters, featuring totals of four goals or more in four of the six fixtures, alongside one dramatic 3-3 draw.

Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say

The tactical landscape of this match is defined by Borussia Dortmund's control and Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive instability. Expected goals metrics place Dortmund at 2.38 against Frankfurt's 1.17, setting up a dynamic where the home side dictates the tempo. Despite a demanding schedule featuring three matches in a fortnight and a four-day turnaround, Dortmund's baseline ratings sit 0.60 clear of their opponents.

Frankfurt's defensive leakage means their matches frequently exceed standard goal lines. Expected corners sit at 10.7 against a league baseline of 9.8, while yellow cards project to 3.6. First-half metrics anticipate an active opening period with an expected 1.60 goals before the break, accounting for a 45% share of the match total.

Expected Goals & Probability Outlook

The Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson engine outlines a lopsided expectation for this encounter, generating a total expected goals figure of 4.29 compared to the competition baseline of 3.14.

Metric Model Projection
Expected Goals (Dortmund) 3.58
Expected Goals (Frankfurt) 0.71
Total Expected Goals 4.29
Home Win Probability 88.0%
Draw Probability 8.7%
Away Win Probability 3.3%
Over 2.5 Goals Probability 80.1%
Both Teams to Score Probability 49.8%

Likeliest scorelines heavily favor the hosts, with a 3-0 home victory leading the probabilities at 10.5%, followed by a 4-0 win at 9.4% and a 2-0 result at 8.8%.

Score Prediction & Verdict

For a well-grounded Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt prediction, the numbers point firmly in one direction. The model backs a home win at 66.4% confidence, underpinned by superior expected goals figures and Frankfurt's struggles on the road.

Verdict: Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt.

For this call to be wrong, Eintracht Frankfurt must radically tighten a defense that has conceded 2.67 goals per game this season, while overcoming a historical head-to-head disadvantage against opponents who rate 0.60 clear on fitted ratings.

Published by Guaranteed Correct Score Tips · Bundesliga
Updated: Oct 19, 2026 13:56
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Markets modelled for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt

What each bet on this fixture actually is, and what has to happen for it to win.

Match Winner ▼

A match winner pick backs one named team to win the game outright. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model gives one side the highest chance of doing that — home wins and away wins only, because the draw is a separate outcome and is covered on the match preview rather than here.

How it settles: The pick wins if the named team is ahead when the 90 minutes are up. A draw loses, and extra time and penalties in cup ties are ignored: everything on this site is settled from the 90-minute score.

See today's Top 10 Win list →
Over 2.5 Goals ▼

Over 2.5 goals means the two teams combine for three goals or more. This list ranks the ten upcoming fixtures where the model has the strongest view on that line — normally high-scoring attacks, open defences, or leagues whose baseline goal rate runs above average.

How it settles: Three goals or more at full time wins an Over 2.5 pick; exactly two or fewer loses. Own goals count towards the total and, as everywhere on the site, only the 90 minutes are counted.

See today's Top 10 Over 2.5 list →
Both Teams To Score (GG) ▼

Both Teams To Score — GG on most coupons — asks only whether each side finds the net at least once. Who wins is irrelevant, which is why the list often prefers two mid-table attacking sides over a one-sided fixture between a giant and a defensive minnow.

How it settles: Both teams must score at least one goal in the 90 minutes. 1-1, 2-1 and 3-2 all win; 2-0, 1-0 and 0-0 all lose. Own goals count for the team credited with the goal in the official record.

See today's Top 10 BTTS list →
First Half Over 0.5 Goals ▼

This market asks a single question: will there be at least one goal before half time, by either team? It is the shortest question on the site, which is why the list is ranked against a much higher bar than the others.

How it settles: Any goal scored in the first half wins the pick, no matter who scores it. A goalless first half loses even if the second half produces five, because the market is settled on the half-time score alone.

See today's Top 10 1H Over 0.5 list →
Leading At Half Time ▼

This list backs a named team to be ahead when the half-time whistle goes. It is not a bet on the final result: a side can lead at the break, lose the match, and the pick still wins.

How it settles: The named team must be in front on the half-time score. Level at the break loses, including 0-0, and the second half has no bearing on it.

See today's Top 10 HT Win list →
Most Scoring Half ▼

Most Scoring Half asks which period of the match contains more goals: the first half, the second half, or neither, when both halves produce the same number. All goals by both teams are counted together, so this is a bet on the shape of the game rather than on who wins it.

How it settles: The half-time score gives the first-half total; the rest of the full-time score gives the second-half total. The larger total wins the pick, and Equal wins when the two are the same — including a 0-0, which counts as nil apiece rather than as no result.

See today's Top 10 Most Scoring Half list →
Over 8.5 Match Corners ▼

This market counts every corner awarded to both teams across the match. Over 8.5 means nine or more. Corner volume tracks territory rather than quality, so the model favours attacking sides that spend the game pushing a deep-lying opponent back.

How it settles: Nine corners or more wins the pick; eight or fewer loses. Only corners actually taken are counted in the official record, and the total is settled from the league data feed once the match is complete.

See today's Top 10 Corners list →
Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards ▼

This market counts the yellow cards shown to both teams across the match. Over 2.5 means three or more. Booking volume is driven by how a fixture is refereed and how often the two sides foul, which is why derbies and relegation matches sit near the top of the list.

How it settles: Three yellow cards or more wins the pick. The model counts yellows only, from the league data feed. Bookmakers that settle in booking points instead — commonly 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red — can grade the same match differently, so check the rule at your book before backing a card pick.

See today's Top 10 Cards list →

Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt: frequently asked questions FAQ

Who is predicted to win in Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt? ▼

Our expected-goals model's strongest call on this fixture is 1H Over 0.5 in the First Half Over 0.5 Goals market, at 80.7% modelled probability. That is a probability, not a forecast of a certainty.

What is the tactical preview and xG analysis for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt? ▼

Our expected goals model projects 3.58 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.71 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined 4.29 goals. Borussia Dortmund have taken D-L-D-W-W-W-W-W-W-L from their last 10 completed matches. Eintracht Frankfurt have taken W-L-D-W-L-D-D-L-L-D from their last 10. Across 6 previous meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Eintracht Frankfurt 0, with 1 drawn.

Which betting markets are modelled for Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt? ▼

This fixture is modelled in 8 markets: First Half Over 0.5 Goals, Match Winner, Over 8.5 Match Corners, Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards, Over 2.5 Goals, Both Teams To Score (GG), Leading At Half Time and Most Scoring Half. Each is explained on this page, and the full set of selections and probabilities is in the model panel above.

When does Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off? ▼

Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt in the Bundesliga kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC. Every prediction on this page is settled from the 90-minute score.

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