Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 3.11 to 1.56 on expected goals, with 84.5% for over 2.5 goals in the Bundesliga.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 31 October at 14:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 3.11 for the hosts and 1.56 for the visitors, a combined 4.67 goals against a competition norm of 3.14.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen are a clear favourite at 67.8%, with the draw back at 16.3%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — last 7: L-W-W-W-D-W-L (most recent first). That is 16 scored and 12 conceded, 2.29 and 1.71 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 7, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-W-W across 3, 8 scored and 1 conceded.
VfB Stuttgart — last 7: L-L-W-L-L-W-L (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 13 conceded, 1.43 and 1.86 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 7, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-W-L-L across 4, 4 scored and 8 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 4.67 goals in this fixture, above the Bundesliga norm of 3.14, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen carry the larger share of that expectation, at 3.11 against 1.56. Both teams to score sits at 76.1%, and over 2.5 goals at 84.5% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen win | 67.8% |
| Draw | 16.3% |
| VfB Stuttgart win | 15.9% |
| Both teams to score | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.5% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 3-1 at 7.3%, 2-1 at 7.1%, 3-2 at 5.7%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 79.5% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.52, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 71.3% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.8 against a league baseline of 3.8.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 68.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57, so the weaker attack still projects 1.57 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 68.4% confidence. Expected total goals 3.38, from 1.81 - 1.57 (Bundesliga baseline 1.57 per side).
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 61.3% confidence. Expected corners 9.8 against a league baseline of 9.8.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.52 before the break and 1.86 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 45.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 45.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57 against a Bundesliga baseline of 1.57 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 37.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.81 - 1.57, which projects a 36% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 3-1 — a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 7.3%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 67.8%, with the draw at 16.3%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
