SE Palmeiras vs Clube do Remo prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.23 to 0.54 on expected goals, with 52.4% for over 2.5 goals in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
SE Palmeiras host Clube do Remo in the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A, kicking off Thursday 5 November at 22:30 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.23 for the hosts and 0.54 for the visitors, a combined 2.77 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
SE Palmeiras are a clear favourite at 75.2%, with the draw back at 18.3%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
SE Palmeiras — we hold no completed matches for this club, so their current form is not something this preview will guess at.
Clube do Remo — we hold no completed matches for this club, so their current form is not something this preview will guess at.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 2.77 goals in this fixture, above the Campeonato Brasileiro Série A norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
SE Palmeiras carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.23 against 0.54. Both teams to score sits at 38.2%, and over 2.5 goals at 52.4% — read together, that is a match the model expects to stay compressed.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| SE Palmeiras win | 75.2% |
| Draw | 18.3% |
| Clube do Remo win | 6.5% |
| Both teams to score | 38.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 2-0 at 15.6%, 1-0 at 13%, 3-0 at 11.6%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 74.3% confidence. Expected yellow cards 3.9 against a league baseline of 3.9. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 73.8% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.36, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 60.3% confidence. Expected corners 9.6 against a league baseline of 9.6. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 58.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.62 - 1.40, so the weaker attack still projects 1.40 goals. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 57.1% confidence. Expected total goals 3.02, from 1.62 - 1.40 (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline 1.41 per side). Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 46.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.62 - 1.40 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.41 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 46.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.62 - 1.40 against a Campeonato Brasileiro Série A baseline of 1.41 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.5% confidence. Expected goals 1.36 before the break and 1.66 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 36.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.62 - 1.40, which projects a 39% chance of a level score at the break. Clube do Remo are away from home in a competition outside their domestic league.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-0 — a SE Palmeiras win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 15.6%.
Confidence: High. The model puts a SE Palmeiras win at 75.2%, with the draw at 18.3%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
