Willem II Tilburg vs PEC Zwolle prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.48 to 2.41 on expected goals, with 74.6% for over 2.5 goals in the Eredivisie.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Willem II Tilburg host PEC Zwolle in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 6 November at 19:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.48 for the hosts and 2.41 for the visitors, a combined 3.89 goals against a competition norm of 3.24.
PEC Zwolle are a clear favourite at 57%, with the draw back at 21%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Willem II Tilburg — last 1: L (most recent first). That is 0 scored and 7 conceded, 0.00 and 7.00 per game. Both teams scored in 0 of the 1, and 1 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run.
PEC Zwolle — last 10: D-W-L-L-L-D-L-W-L-L (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 23 conceded, 1.10 and 2.30 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-D-W-L across 5, 6 scored and 9 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.89 goals in this fixture, above the Eredivisie norm of 3.24, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
PEC Zwolle carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.41 against 1.48. Both teams to score sits at 71.3%, and over 2.5 goals at 74.6% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 22% |
| Draw | 21% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 57% |
| Both teams to score | 71.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.6% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-2 at 8.8%, 1-1 at 8.2%, 1-3 at 7%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 79.6% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.57, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 74.2% confidence. Expected corners 10.8 against a league baseline of 9.6.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 69.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.86 - 1.62, so the weaker attack still projects 1.62 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 68.5% confidence. Expected total goals 3.48, from 1.86 - 1.62 (Eredivisie baseline 1.62 per side).
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 56.3% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.6 against a league baseline of 3.9.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 46.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.57 before the break and 1.92 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 40% confidence. Expected goals 1.86 - 1.62 against a Eredivisie baseline of 1.62 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 40% confidence. Expected goals 1.86 - 1.62 against a Eredivisie baseline of 1.62 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 33.7% confidence. Expected goals 1.86 - 1.62, which projects a 36% chance of a level score at the break.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an PEC Zwolle win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.8%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an PEC Zwolle win at 57%, with the draw at 21%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
