Venezia FC vs Udinese Calcio prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.30 to 1.71 on expected goals, with 57.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Venezia FC host Udinese Calcio in the Serie A, kicking off Friday 6 November at 19:45 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.30 for the hosts and 1.71 for the visitors, a combined 3.00 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
Udinese Calcio hold the edge at 45.7%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Venezia FC — last 10: L-L-W-L-L-L-L-L-L-L (most recent first). That is 8 scored and 22 conceded, 0.80 and 2.20 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-W-L-L-L across 5, 3 scored and 10 conceded.
Udinese Calcio — last 10: L-D-L-L-L-L-L-L-W-D (most recent first). That is 11 scored and 23 conceded, 1.10 and 2.30 per game. Both teams scored in 6 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 1 clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-L-W-L across 5, 7 scored and 10 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 2 meetings on record, Venezia FC have won 1, Udinese Calcio 1, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 1 Feb 2025: Udinese Calcio 3-2 Venezia FC.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.00 goals in this fixture, above the Serie A norm of 2.72, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Udinese Calcio carry the larger share of that expectation, at 1.71 against 1.30. Both teams to score sits at 60.9%, and over 2.5 goals at 57.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Venezia FC win | 27.8% |
| Draw | 26.6% |
| Udinese Calcio win | 45.7% |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 12.4%, 1-2 at 9.4%, 0-2 at 7.2%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 73.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.31, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 64.6% confidence. Expected corners 9.8 against a league baseline of 8.8. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 60.2% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35, so the weaker attack still projects 1.35 goals. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Under 2.5 Cards — 58.6% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.4 against a league baseline of 3.7. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 55.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.91, from 1.56 - 1.35 (Serie A baseline 1.36 per side). Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.31 before the break and 1.60 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 39.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35 against a Serie A baseline of 1.36 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 39.1% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35 against a Serie A baseline of 1.36 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 31.9% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35, which projects a 40% chance of a level score at the break. Venezia FC: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Venezia FC average 4.3 corners a game and concede 4.9, over a rolling 9-match sample. Udinese Calcio average 4.3 and concede 5.2 across 20. Taken at face value that points to roughly 8.6 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 2.2 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.1; the visitors 1.9 and 1.1. That is a combined 4.1 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an Udinese Calcio win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 9.4%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts an Udinese Calcio win at 45.7%, with the draw at 26.6%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 12.4%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
