Sevilla FC vs Deportivo Alavés prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 2.11 to 1.62 on expected goals, with 71.8% for over 2.5 goals in the Primera Division.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Sevilla FC host Deportivo Alavés in the Primera Division, kicking off Friday 6 November at 20:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 2.11 for the hosts and 1.62 for the visitors, a combined 3.72 goals against a competition norm of 2.70.
Sevilla FC hold the edge at 48.1%, but not by enough to treat the result as settled.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Sevilla FC — last 10: W-L-D-L-W-W-D-L-W-W (most recent first). That is 16 scored and 16 conceded, 1.60 and 1.60 per game. Both teams scored in 7 of the 10, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads W-L-W-L-W across 5, 7 scored and 7 conceded.
Deportivo Alavés — last 10: L-L-D-L-D-L-D-W-W-D (most recent first). That is 13 scored and 18 conceded, 1.30 and 1.80 per game. Both teams scored in 8 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They have not kept a clean sheet in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads L-L-L-D-W across 5, 7 scored and 13 conceded.
Head-to-Head Record
Across the 1 meeting on record, Sevilla FC have won 1, Deportivo Alavés 0, with 0 drawn. That covers their domestic league meetings; cup ties and European meetings are not included.
The most recent came on 16 Sep 2026: Deportivo Alavés 0-1 Sevilla FC.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.72 goals in this fixture, above the Primera Division norm of 2.70, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Sevilla FC carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.11 against 1.62. Both teams to score sits at 71.5%, and over 2.5 goals at 71.8% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 48.1% |
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 28.8% |
| Both teams to score | 71.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.8% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-1 at 9.3%, 2-1 at 8.7%, 2-2 at 7%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 80.9% confidence. Expected yellow cards 4.5 against a league baseline of 4.4.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 73.3% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.27, at a fitted 45% share of the match total.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 60.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.31, so the weaker attack still projects 1.31 goals.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 56.1% confidence. Expected total goals 2.82, from 1.51 - 1.31 (Primera Division baseline 1.31 per side).
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Under 8.5 Corners — 55.2% confidence. Expected corners 8.4 against a league baseline of 9.7.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.27 before the break and 1.55 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 41.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.31 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.31 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 41.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.31 against a Primera Division baseline of 1.31 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 33.3% confidence. Expected goals 1.51 - 1.31, which projects a 41% chance of a level score at the break.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Sevilla FC average 3.9 corners a game and concede 4.0, over a rolling 20-match sample. Deportivo Alavés average 5.1 and concede 5.2 across 10. Taken at face value that points to roughly 9.0 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 2.8 yellows a game to their opponents' 2.2; the visitors 1.9 and 2.1. That is a combined 4.7 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 2-1 — a Sevilla FC win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 8.7%.
Confidence: Medium. The model puts a Sevilla FC win at 48.1%, with the draw at 23.1%.
Worth being straight about: across every scoreline the model considers, the single most likely one is 1-1 at 9.3%. A favourite of this size does not make any one scoreline probable — it shifts where the weight of the distribution sits.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
