Cagliari Calcio vs Frosinone Calcio prediction: expected goals, form and verdict
Our model makes it 1.17 to 2.59 on expected goals, with 72.5% for over 2.5 goals in the Serie A.
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Match Overview & What Is At Stake
Cagliari Calcio host Frosinone Calcio in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 7 November at 14:00 UTC. Our expected-goals model projects 1.17 for the hosts and 2.59 for the visitors, a combined 3.76 goals against a competition norm of 2.72.
Frosinone Calcio are a clear favourite at 67.1%, with the draw back at 18.7%.
The sections below set out what the record actually shows: recent results, the meetings we hold, and what the model builds on top of them.
Form Guide & Scoring Trends
Cagliari Calcio — last 10: L-L-L-D-W-W-W-L-W-W (most recent first). That is 10 scored and 14 conceded, 1.00 and 1.40 per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10, and 4 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 3 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches at home, that reads L-D-W-L-W across 5, 4 scored and 5 conceded.
Frosinone Calcio — last 9: W-D-W-L-W-D-W-W-L (most recent first). That is 22 scored and 14 conceded, 2.44 and 1.56 per game. Both teams scored in 5 of the 9, and 6 went past 2.5 goals. They kept 2 clean sheets in the run. Restricted to matches away from home, that reads D-L-D-W across 4, 8 scored and 8 conceded.
Tactical Read: What The Numbers Say
The model expects 3.76 goals in this fixture, above the Serie A norm of 2.72, which is where the goals markets rather than the result markets tend to pay.
Frosinone Calcio carry the larger share of that expectation, at 2.59 against 1.17. Both teams to score sits at 64.7%, and over 2.5 goals at 72.5% — read together, that is a match the model expects to open up at both ends.
Expected Goals & Probability Outlook
Every figure here comes from the same Dixon-Coles adjusted Poisson model, run on the scoring rates above.
| Market | Model probability |
|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 14.2% |
| Draw | 18.7% |
| Frosinone Calcio win | 67.1% |
| Both teams to score | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.5% |
The likeliest exact scorelines are 1-2 at 9.1%, 1-1 at 7.9%, 1-3 at 7.9%. No single scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of football — but the shape of the distribution is what the selections below are drawn from.
Published selections
- Over 8.5 Match Corners: Over 8.5 Corners — 93.1% confidence. Expected corners 13.8 against a league baseline of 8.8. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- First Half Over 0.5 Goals: 1H Over 0.5 — 74.2% confidence. First-half expected goals 1.31, at a fitted 45% share of the match total. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Both Teams To Score (GG): GG (Yes) — 60.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35, so the weaker attack still projects 1.35 goals. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 — 57.9% confidence. Expected total goals 2.91, from 1.56 - 1.35 (Serie A baseline 1.36 per side). Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Over 2.5 Match Yellow Cards: Over 2.5 Cards — 54.1% confidence. Expected yellow cards 2.9 against a league baseline of 3.7. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Most Scoring Half: 2nd Half — 44.6% confidence. Expected goals 1.31 before the break and 1.60 after, at a fitted 45% first-half share. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Winner: Home Win — 37% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35 against a Serie A baseline of 1.36 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Match Outcome (W/D/L): Home Win — 37% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35 against a Serie A baseline of 1.36 per side; the two fitted ratings are close to level. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
- Leading At Half Time: HT Home Win — 30.8% confidence. Expected goals 1.56 - 1.35, which projects a 40% chance of a level score at the break. Cagliari Calcio: 3 matches in the last fortnight.
Corners & Cards Outlook
Cagliari Calcio average 4.4 corners a game and concede 5.1, over a rolling 20-match sample. Frosinone Calcio average 6.3 and concede 6.6 across 9. Taken at face value that points to roughly 10.7 corners between them.
On discipline, the hosts pick up 1.5 yellows a game to their opponents' 1.1; the visitors 1.8 and 2.3. That is a combined 3.3 yellows before any allowance for how the match itself develops.
Score Prediction & Verdict
Prediction: 1-2 — an Frosinone Calcio win, and the likeliest scoreline within that result at 9.1%.
Confidence: High. The model puts an Frosinone Calcio win at 67.1%, with the draw at 18.7%.
The call rests on the scoring rates above holding up. It is wrong if this becomes the tight, low-event match the goals numbers argue against, and the margin here leaves less room for that than most.
Predictions are modelled probabilities, not certainties. Bet responsibly.
